The objective of defence planning is to look well into the future and predict which force structure will be the most cost-effective in the future security environment. NATO periodically executes a defence planning process called NDPP (NATO Defence Planning Process) in order to have an effective and affordable future force structure for all 29 NATO member states combined. Defence planning delivers for a navy the future fleet structure: the types and numbers of ships required for future maritime operations. A trend that is considered to be essential in order to remain relevant in the rapidly changing security environment is mission modularity. Mission modularity means that the mission systems of a ship are contained within modules (which can be standard shipping containers) so that the ship can adapt to changing missions and technologies more quickly. The ship has space for installing a number of mission modules and supports the modules by providing services like electricity, cooling water and data exchange. The requirements of the next mission determine which mission modules have to be installed on the ship. Reconfiguration may occur in the nearest friendly port.
In the past a number of studies have been conducted to determine the impact of this trend on the cost and operational effectiveness of the current traditional navy construct. These studies have in common that the results are based on qualitative assumptions. The NATO Specialist Teams on Total Ship Systems Engineering and Ship Costing developed an approach that combines an effectiveness model and a cost model in order to provide valuable data and insight into the cost-effectiveness of alternative fleet structures on a comparative basis. The approach includes future operational context analysis, fleet and ship concept design, concept of operations development, operations analysis, cost analysis, and data analysis and visualisation. Together with the Specialist Team on Mission Modularity, the approach was applied in a study that finished end of last year. The study validates in a rigorous, systematic and analytical context the conclusions from earlier studies about the value of mission modularity, and aids NATO and individual nations to make informed decisions on naval force planning.