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000007598 02470 $$2doi$$a10.24868/issn.2515-818X.2018.028
000007598 035__ $$a2277281
000007598 037__ $$aGENERAL
000007598 245__ $$aTowards a novel design perspective for system vulnerability using a Markov chain
000007598 269__ $$a2018-10-03
000007598 336__ $$aConference Proceedings
000007598 520__ $$aIn order to investigate to which extent naval ships can execute their operational scenario after damage, an early stage assessment of the vulnerability of distributed systems needs to be carried out. Such assessments are currently mostly done by evaluating the performance of predefined concepts. However, such an approach does not necessarily lead to the most desirable solution, since solutions outside the scope of the designer’s preconceived ideas or experience are inherently hard to investigate. This paper therefore proposes several steps towards an approach that enables a vulnerability assessment that is independent of predefined concepts. This is done by incorporating several additions to an existing system vulnerability approach developed by the authors, using a Markov chain. With this approach there is no longer a need for modelling individual hits or damage scenarios. Whereas the approach has previously been shown in concept, this paper introduces three improvements that contribute to the applicability of the approach: 1)it is scaled up in order to model a larger number of compartments and distributed systems, 2) the hit probabilities for different compartments can be adjusted, and 3) it is shown how the availability of main ship functions can be derived from the availability of individual connections. A test case that compares two powering concepts (conventional and full electric powering) of a notional Oceangoing Patrol Vessel (OPV) is provided to illustrate the principles behind the improvements. From the results the two main contributions of this paper can be obtained: 1)the possibility to assess the system vulnerability for different levels of required residual capacity at different impact levels, and 2) and the quantitative nature of the results, aiding ship designers and naval staff with understanding the consequences of various concepts on the system vulnerability. 
000007598 542__ $$fCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
000007598 6531_ $$aVulnerability
000007598 6531_ $$aDistributed systems
000007598 6531_ $$aEarly stage design
000007598 6531_ $$aMarkov chain
000007598 7001_ $$aHabben Jansen, A C$$uDelft University of Technology, The Netherlands
000007598 7001_ $$aDuchateau, E A E$$uDefence Materiel Organisation, The Netherlands
000007598 7001_ $$aKana, A A$$uDelft University of Technology, The Netherlands
000007598 773__ $$tConference Proceedings of INEC
000007598 773__ $$jINEC 2018
000007598 789__ $$whttps://zenodo.org/record/2277281$$2URL$$eIsIdenticalTo
000007598 85641 $$uhttps://imarest.org/inec$$yConference website
000007598 8564_ $$943cbaa6a-a788-42fd-9d95-55138db0a861$$s1938108$$uhttps://library.imarest.org/record/7598/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20049%20Habben%20Jansen%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf