TY  - GEN
N2  - Autonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies are data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS precision required for autonomous mooring is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a range of 2026-2041, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2037 and 2101. Finally, the cost of a medium speed diesel engine and an LT-PEMFC Fuel Cell will be approximately equal somewhere between 2025 and 2060.
AB  - Autonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies are data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS precision required for autonomous mooring is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a range of 2026-2041, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2037 and 2101. Finally, the cost of a medium speed diesel engine and an LT-PEMFC Fuel Cell will be approximately equal somewhere between 2025 and 2060.
AD  - Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
AD  - Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
AD  - Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands; United States Air Force Office of Scientific Research, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States
T1  - When will autonomous ships arrive? A technological forecasting perspective
DA  - 2018-10-02
AU  - Kooij, C
AU  - Colling, A P
AU  - Benson, C L
L1  - https://library.imarest.org/record/7586/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20022%20Kooij%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf
JF  - Conference Proceedings of INEC
VL  - INEC 2018
PY  - 2018-10-02
ID  - 7586
L4  - https://library.imarest.org/record/7586/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20022%20Kooij%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf
KW  - Autonomous shipping
KW  - Technology forecasting
KW  - unmanned ship
KW  - Technological Improvement Rate
KW  - Moore's law
TI  - When will autonomous ships arrive? A technological forecasting perspective
Y1  - 2018-10-02
L2  - https://library.imarest.org/record/7586/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20022%20Kooij%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf
LK  - https://www.imarest.org/inec
LK  - https://library.imarest.org/record/7586/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20022%20Kooij%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf
UR  - https://www.imarest.org/inec
UR  - https://library.imarest.org/record/7586/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20022%20Kooij%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf
ER  -