000007586 001__ 7586 000007586 005__ 20241024114700.0 000007586 02470 $$2doi$$a10.24868/issn.2515-818X.2018.016 000007586 035__ $$a2249464 000007586 037__ $$aGENERAL 000007586 245__ $$aWhen will autonomous ships arrive? A technological forecasting perspective 000007586 269__ $$a2018-10-02 000007586 336__ $$aConference Proceedings 000007586 520__ $$aAutonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies are data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS precision required for autonomous mooring is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a range of 2026-2041, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2037 and 2101. Finally, the cost of a medium speed diesel engine and an LT-PEMFC Fuel Cell will be approximately equal somewhere between 2025 and 2060. 000007586 542__ $$fCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0 000007586 6531_ $$aAutonomous shipping 000007586 6531_ $$aTechnology forecasting 000007586 6531_ $$aunmanned ship 000007586 6531_ $$aTechnological Improvement Rate 000007586 6531_ $$aMoore's law 000007586 7001_ $$aKooij, C$$uDelft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands 000007586 7001_ $$aColling, A P$$uDelft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands 000007586 7001_ $$aBenson, C L$$uDelft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands; United States Air Force Office of Scientific Research, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States 000007586 773__ $$tConference Proceedings of INEC 000007586 773__ $$jINEC 2018 000007586 789__ $$whttps://zenodo.org/record/2249464$$2URL$$eIsIdenticalTo 000007586 8564_ $$90503502b-ef60-425d-bd53-518a308695b8$$s2823999$$uhttps://library.imarest.org/record/7586/files/INEC%202018%20Paper%20022%20Kooij%20SDG%20FINAL.pdf